Below will be a series of charts looking at the short, medium and long-term trends of bitcoin at the end of Q1. This will help provide us with key support and resistance levels to look at and see if the downward trend is anywhere near reversing.
However, there are some signs of improvement. There is a positive divergence in the RSI versus the price. A situation like this is one that should be watched but not acted on. This is a potential sign of an upward price move. All indicators and most importantly the price are pointing down.
A MACD crossover has occurred below 0, which is also a positive sign. The problem is the price still remains in a downtrend so this is not a move to be acted on until price starts moving higher or the various indicators start rolling over (which would initiate a short). The 50 day EMA is acting as resistance as well.
I have also posted a long term chart using Ichimoku to try and get a better sense of where near term resistance is. It is confirming the 50 day EMA at around US$260-265 as a resistance level followed by US$275-280, which is the top of cloud as the next and harder resistance level. So far price is rejecting both of these levels.
The intermediate term trend (6 months) is also bearish. Using Fibonacci Retracements drawn from the high in August of 2014, major areas of resistance can be found. The US$280 area comes into play again as a line of resistance that needs to be broken.
A trendline drawn from the lows has been broken. Broken support now becomes resistance so watch that line to see if price is ready to make a move higher. If US$240 doesn’t hold, the US$220 area could provide minor support, but U$200 would more likely be an area to watch for bigger support. If it fails to hold, a retest of the lows (US$165-180) will certainly be the next area to watch for a change in the short and intermediate term trend.
Looking at the short term trend (mid-march high) using Fibonacci retracements, the price has rallied from the low at US$237 but is looking bearish again as the RSI has rolled over from an overbought position and is heading lower.
The Money Flow index is short term very overbought and should begin to correct soon. The MACD had a positive crossover but is flattening out and should be watched for a rollover as well. In the short term, the .382 fibonacci lines at around US$261 has proven resistance as it has in the intermediate and long term trends.
It’s time to find out if price is basing before a higher move or if it is going to make a move lower. Short term support can be found at US$251 and around US$240-237. Here, one can see the US$240 level is important and if it doesn’t hold, US$225 and US$208 are next support areas before US$200.
All 3 price trends are looking bearish right now. Broken support becomes resistance so if bitcoinis to rally, there will be many resistance levels above which will need to be broken through (Fibonacci levels) along with the moving averages.
For now, looking at those levels isn’t important as the bitcoin price seems to be rangebound and looking for support. While the indicators are improving somewhat, this is a time to watch and not act. The charts are sending mixed messages. Wait for price to resolve itself one way or the other before making a move.